County of Hawaii: General Plan
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BILL NO. 163
(Draft 4)
(RAMSEYER VERSION – UNOFFICIAL)
ORDINANCE NO.

SECTION 1. Purpose. The purpose of this ordinance is to adopt a General Plan in compliance with Section 3-15, Hawaii County Charter and to repeal the 1989 General Plan adopted by Ordinance No. 89 142, as amended.

SECTION 2. The attached document identified as Appendix A, which also includes the Land Use Pattern Allocation Guide Maps and the Facilities Maps, is hereby adopted as the Hawaii County General Plan.

INTRODUCED BY:

Effective Date:

GENERAL PLAN REVISION

[AN ORDINANCE ADOPTING THE COUNTY OF HAWAII GENERAL PLAN AND REPEALING ORDINANCE NO. 439, AS AMENDED.

BE IT ORDAINED BY THE COUNCIL OF THE COUNTY OF HAWAII:

SECTION 1. Purpose. It is the purpose of this ordinance to adopt by ordinance a General Plan in compliance with Section 3-16, Hawaii County Charter.

SECTION 2. Requirements. Section 3-16, Hawaii County Charter, mandates that the General Plan contain the following:

"A statement of development objectives, standards and principles with respect to the most desirable use of land within the county for residential, recreational, agricultural, commercial, industrial and other purposes which shall be consistent with proper conservation of natural resources and the preservation of [our] natural beauty and historical sites; the most desirable density of population in the several parts of the county; a system of principal thoroughfare, highways, streets, public access to the shorelines, and other open spaces; the general locations, relocations and improvements of public buildings, the general location and extent of public utilities and terminals, whether publicly or privately owned, for water, sewers, light, power, transit, and other purposes; the extent and location of public housing projects; adequate drainage facilities and control; air pollution; and such other matter as may, in the council's judgment, be beneficial to the social, economic, and governmental conditions and trends and shall be designed to assure the coordinated development of the county and to promote the general welfare and prosperity of its people."

SECTION 3. Statement of Assumptions. The following Assumptions were the basis by which the General Plan was developed:

1. Agriculture

Agricultural employment, especially in the sugar industry has been declining over the past ten years. At best, employment in the sugar industry is projected to decline slowly if normal attrition through retirement continues. Alternatively, national and international economic and political forces could result in the demise of the industry. Factors affecting this decline will be the expansion and labor demands of the macadamia nut, papaya, flower and other diversified agricultural industries.

2. Tourism

The County's visitor industry is poised for rapid expansion, and employment in tourism is expected to increase substantially.

1. Other Basic Industries

There is tremendous potential for expansion in other industries such as aquaculture, astronomy, renewable energy, and research-development.

 

SECTION 4. Council Policies, Statement of Development Objectives, Standards and Principles. The Council's policies for the long-range comprehensive physical development of the county and the statements of development objectives, standards and principles with respect to the most desirable use of land within the county are set forth as follows.]

[SECTION 5. Courses of Actions. The courses of actions necessary to promote the policies, development objectives, standards and principles as incorporated in Section 3 are hereby set forth for the various elements within the designated districts.]

[INTRODUCTION

This section provides an overview of the General Plan with respect to its history, the program and planning process used in its development and the intended means of implementing the plan. The introduction also presents a discussion of the County's historical trends and alternative employment and population projections.

OVERVIEW OF THE GENERAL PLAN

The County of Hawaii's General Plan is the policy document for the long-range comprehensive development of the island of Hawaii. The General Plan provides the direction for the future growth of the County. It brings into focus the relationship between residents and their pursuits and institutions, offering policy statements which embody the expressed goals for present and future generations.]

History of the Plan

General [plan] Plan studies in the County of Hawaii were initiated in the late 1950's[.] and were limited to particular regions of the island such as the Hilo, Kona, Kohala, Hamakua, and Puna Districts. As such, these initial general plans lacked a comprehensive, coordinated, and integrated overview of the entire County. The first of these studies, "A Plan for Kona [,]", was completed in 1960 and encompassed the districts of North and South Kona. "A Plan for the Metropolitan Area of Hilo" was completed in 1961 for the districts of South Hilo and Puna. "The Kohala-Hamakua Region General Plan" was completed in 1963 and covered part of the district of North Kona and the districts of North and South Kohala, Hamakua and North Hilo. These regional plans were adopted by Ordinance No. 317 in July 1965, as the General Plan for the County. The district of Ka'u was the only area in the County not covered by this plan.

With the adoption and ratification of the County Charter in 1968, the General Plan emerged as a major policy document. Section 3-[16] 15 of the County Charter states:

"The county council shall adopt by ordinance a general plan which shall set forth the Council's policy for long-range comprehensive physical development of the County. It shall contain a statement of development objectives, standards and principles with respect to the most desirable use of land within the County for residential, recreational, agricultural, commercial, industrial, and other purposes which shall be consistent with proper conservation of natural resources and the preservation of our natural beauty and historical sites; the most desirable density of population in the several parts of the County; a system of principal thoroughfares, highways, streets, public access to the shoreline, and other open spaces; the general locations, relocations and improvement of public buildings; the general location and extent of public utilities and terminals, whether publicly or privately owned, for water, sewers, light, power, transit and other purposes; the extent and location of public housing projects; adequate drainage facilities and control; air pollution; and such other matters as may, in the Council's judgment, be beneficial to the social, economic, and governmental conditions and trends and shall be designed to assure the coordinated development of the County and to promote the general welfare and prosperity of its people.

(a) The Council shall enact zoning, subdivision, and other such ordinances, which shall contain the necessary provisions to carry out the purpose of the General Plan.

(b) No public improvement, project, subdivision, or zoning ordinances, shall be initiated or adopted unless the same conforms to and implements the General Plan.

(c) Amendments to the General Plan may be initiated by the Council or the Planning Director."

The first General Plan document to be completed after the ratification of the County Charter in 1968 was adopted by ordinance on December 15, 1971 by the County Council. Upon adoption of the General Plan in 1971, the Council laid the foundation for establishing a comprehensive planning program for the County of Hawaii. This program consists of three interrelated parts arranged in a hierarchy as described below[.] and illustrated in Figure I.

The General Plan represents the first level and encompasses long-range goals, policies, [and] standards, and courses of action for the entire County. The General Plan also provides the legal basis for all of the other elements of the County's planning structure. As such, the General Plan is the highest order, or "umbrella" plan. It establishes the outer limits or boundaries within which the County must operate.

The second level consists of short and middle range plans [which] that further define the long-range goals and policies of the General Plan. These plans are related to specific regions or districts (Hilo, Kona, Kohala, Ka'u, etc.), functions (recreation, agriculture, drainage, highways, etc.)[;], and [for] specific areas within a region (Kailua-Kona, Downtown Hilo, etc.).

The third level consists of specific mechanisms to implement the two higher levels of the planning hierarchy. These include the Zoning and Subdivision Codes[,] and both the operating and capital improvement program budgets.

Figure I

General Plan Program

The initial development of the General Plan program, undertaken between 1968 and 1970, [investigated, analyzed, and evaluated concurrently all aspects of the County under a common or standard methodology. The General Plan program] was funded through an agreement between the County of Hawaii and the [Federal ] U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development through the former State of Hawaii Department of Planning and Economic Development[.] (currently the State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism). The initial General Plan study program was conducted over a 36-month period and [was] completed by the Planning Department with the technical assistance of professional consultants in the fields of drainage and flood control, historic sites, sewerage, economics, and water.

The General Plan program is structured to investigate, analyze, and evaluate concurrently all aspects of the County under a common or standard methodology. The preparation of the General Plan involves the process of planning and provides the opportunity to broaden the base of citizen participation, review, and understanding.

The 1971 General Plan required five and ten year comprehensive reviews and updates. The reviews and updates are intended to maintain the dynamism and flexibility of the General Plan and to accommodate major changes and trends [which] that may occur within the County. The County initiated a review of the Land Use Pattern Allocation Guide Map in 1978 [and which] that led to several changes to the map. Other changes [which were made include] included the addition of an Energy element and amendments to procedures for the comprehensive reviews and proposals for specific amendments to the General Plan.

The [Revised] Current General Plan Comprehensive Review Program

The planning process utilized for the current comprehensive review and revision of the General Plan included an assessment of the General Plan elements relative to new data, laws, and methods of analysis. Each study element was then analyzed and evaluated in relation to all other elements, County and district goals, and the land use pattern. Potentially, a change in one element could affect other elements as well as the land use pattern. Similarly, a change in County and district goals could potentially be reflected in all elements and in the land use pattern.

The comprehensive review of the General Plan gathered and assessed the data related to each element [in order] to identify present conditions and problems and future possibilities. The study elements [which are] utilized in the General Plan included the following:

Economic [Activities]: Describes the human, capital, and natural resources used to produce goods and services for consumption in local and overseas markets.

Energy: Describes the energy situation for the County and explains the incentive for promoting energy conservation and the development of indigenous energy resources including solar, wind, hydrologic, and geothermal.

Environmental Quality: Identifies the factors affecting the island's environmental quality and describes the precautions and safeguards necessary to maintain and improve the quality of the environment for the physical, psychological, and social well-being of residents and visitors.

[Flood Control and Drainage:] Flooding and Other Natural Hazards: Pertains to the conservation and protection of life, improvements, and natural resources from excess runoff due to either man-made improvements, natural causes, or inundation from tsunamis and heavy seas.

Historic Sites: Identifies [artifacts and] sites and buildings of historical and cultural importance.

Natural Beauty: Identifies areas of unique natural beauty [which] that are a principle asset of the island, and [which require] encourages programs for their conservation, preservation, and integration with other elements.

Natural Resources and Shoreline: Describes the valuable and often irreplaceable natural assets of the island [which require] and encourages programs for their proper management and protection [and wise use].

Housing: Addresses the requirements for and the quantity, quality, and distribution of housing units in the County. [It] This element also addresses critical housing problems of the County.

Public Facilities: Pertains to the location and distribution of facilities for education, [and] public safety, [and for] social, [custodial and] health services[.] and other government operations.

Public Utilities: Describes the distribution of power, light, and water[,]; the collection and [disposition of waste, sewage,] disposal of solid waste and sewage; and the provision of other communication [facilities which] utilities that are essential to the efficient functioning of a [modern] community.

Recreation: Examines the requirements of the County for active and passive outdoor activities, cultural events and pastimes, as well as attendant facilities and areas.

Transportation: Describes the requirements for air and water transport terminal facilities linking the County with the rest of the State and overseas areas, and the island's network of streets, highways, and roads.

Land Use: Studies the relationship of human activities to the uses of land and the location, spatial relationship, and topography [of land uses]. This element is subdivided [according to uses] into the following designations[:] according to uses:

Agricultural: Encompasses all types of agricultural endeavors[,] and specified industrial uses, residential and ancillary community and public and accessory uses.

Commercial: Comprised of industries in the retail trade and service categories and certain non-noxious enterprises from other industrial classifications.

Industrial: Includes uses [which] that may not be compatible with commercial areas (such as manufacturing and processing, wholesaling, large storage and transportation facilities, power plants, and government baseyards) as well as other industrial, manufacturing, or wholesaling uses.

Multiple Residential: Includes duplexes, apartments, town houses [; all] and similar types of residential structures and ancillary community and public uses.

Open[:] Space: Includes conservation lands, forest and water reserves, natural and scientific preserves, and potential natural hazard areas.

Public[:] Lands: Includes Federal, State, County, and University owned lands.

Resort: Consists primarily of areas with basic amenities and attributes [which] that attract developments of visitor accommodations and related facilities.

Single-[family] Family Residential: Consists of single-family detached houses and ancillary community and public uses.

Each study element has been divided into sections [which are] described below.

Introduction and Analysis: Describes the element and summarizes findings, County-wide characteristics and features, trends, changes, and problems [are discussed], as well as the outlook and opportunities for the immediate and distant future. The analysis also addresses the element's interrelationships with other elements.

Goals: [Indicates the desired long-range directions and seeks to provide a cohesive and comprehensive framework within which social and economic programs and governmental effort can be coordinated.] Indicates the desired long-range directions and situations enunciated by community groups, officially expressed in the past or implied in governmental programs. Provides a cohesive and comprehensive framework for the coordination of social and economic programs and governmental effort.

Policies: States the methods or strategies [which] that should be undertaken to attain the stated goals [stated]. These are action and program oriented and involve the formulation of standard procedures, program evaluation and review, rules and regulations, ordinances and laws, budgeting, specific projects, etc.

Standards: Concerned with qualitative and quantitative criteria by which situations can be evaluated or benchmarks established. Standards are basically "yardsticks" or indicators, minimum conditions or levels of quality necessary for the well-being of the public.

Courses of Action: Many study [element] elements require a more precise and definitive discussion of community concerns and problems. These sections attempt to identify specific alternatives on a community, district or regional basis.

As an aid to the understanding of the inter-relationship of the components of the General Plan, the separate elements of the General Plan may also be described as follows:

The Introduction and the Economic element describe the foundations and factors [which] that generate population and economic opportunities and growth on the island of Hawaii. The Environmental Quality, Energy, [Flood Control and Drainage,] Flooding and Other Natural Hazards, Historic Sites, Natural Beauty, and the Natural Resources and [the] Shoreline elements describe those natural and social conditions [which] that influence and set parameters [to] for development opportunities on the island. The Housing, Public Facilities, Public Utilities, Recreation, and Transportation elements describe those services, facilities, and improvements [which are required] necessary to accommodate the growth of population and support the economy. The Land Use element describes the distribution, pattern, and location of the various activities addressed in the other elements of the General Plan.

[Plan Implementation

One of the most critical phases of the planning program is the implementation of the General Plan. It is the use of the plan rather than its mere existence which is of benefit. Public understanding and support are vitally necessary as the responsibility for the development of the island of Hawaii rests not only with the administrative and legislative branches of the County but with all people who live here. Widespread discussion will promote the understanding of unique and innovative concepts which are presented in the plan.

Implementation of the General Plan requires the development of middle and short range community, functional, and area plans. It also requires a systematic review of implementing ordinances such as the zoning and subdivision codes and the adoption of amendments to these codes in accordance with policies and standards of the General Plan.

The implementation of the General Plan is also related to the capital improvement and operating budgets. The capital improvements budget encompasses public improvements and facilities to accommodate the anticipated growth, and the County operational budget encompasses programs and services. Both are major components of the implementation of General Plan policies.

Implementation of the General Plan policies also require the adoption of ordinances to establish programs such as historic sites, housing, area improvement financing, areas of natural beauty and the like.

Although fifteen years have elapsed since the adoption of the County's planning program all of the major components have yet to be put in place. Furthermore, the planning process must be viewed as a continuous non-linear and dynamic process instead of a static and linear one. Unanticipated opportunities as well as unexpected delays necessitate adjustments to programs, standards, and policies. Nevertheless, standard procedures must be followed to insure implementation in a comprehensive and orderly fashion. The following procedures shall be required to provide the necessary guidance:

The General Plan, and any comprehensive review, should be widely distributed for review, discussion, and comments.

Input from community organizations shall be solicited to assist and advise the Planning Department, Planning Commission and Council.

The Planning Commission shall hold public hearings in the principal communities throughout the County.

After the completion of the public hearings for the revision program, the Planning Commission can suggest modifications to the Planning Director and/or submit the revised General Plan with recommendations to the Mayor for transmittal to the County Council.

After its deliberation, the Council shall adopt the revised General Plan ordinance as the official County of Hawaii policy.

After the enactment of the revised General Plan Ordinance, the Planning Department shall prepare drafts of revisions to existing and proposed new ordinances to address any amendments to the Plan. These drafts shall be submitted to the Planning Commission for review and recommendations prior to transmittal to the Council for consideration and action.

The County administration shall prepare a Capital Improvements Program which will insure that all County projects are in accord with the General Plan. The Capital Improvement Program budget shall be submitted to the Council for consideration and action.

Federal and State agencies should be officially requested to recognize the General Plan and any amendments thereto, in the formulation and implementation of their projects and programs.

Community Development plans and Urban Design Guidelines should be prepared or amended by the Planning Department for administrative purposes and adopted by resolution by the Planning Commission. These will show current and proposed public and private capital improvements and services, existing zoning, areas appropriate for allocative land use acreage and any other information which will assist the Planning Department and Commission to implement the General Plan.

The General Plan for the County of Hawaii should be thoroughly reviewed at intervals of not more than ten years. Land use acreage allocation should be reviewed at intervals of not more than five years. All review processes shall be a joint effort of the communities, residents, and the County government.]

 

COUNTY [TRENDS] PROFILE

The County of Hawaii encompasses the island of Hawaii, which is the southeasternmost and largest island of the Hawaiian archipelago. The land area of the County is approximately twice [that] the combined land area of all the other islands of the State.

The island of Hawaii has a diverse climate, topography[,] and scenic beauty. Environments [range from] include dense tropical forests; majestic snowcapped mountains; active volcanoes; black, white, and green sand beaches; deeply eroded valleys; and large expanses of grazing land. Each [of the districts provide] district provides a variety of settings for human activity, land and resource utilization, or wilderness areas of minimal human intrusion.

The County of Hawaii has expanded into new fields of industry such as astronomy, high technology, renewable energy, health and wellness, agricultural and eco-tourism, diversified agriculture and aquaculture. The County’s continuing support of research and development in these emerging fields will ensure a promising future for the island’s economy and its residents. Specific examples include the establishment of the Agricultural Research Center of the Pacific, conversion of the old sewer treatment plant near Puhi Bay in Hilo to an aquaculture facility, and the construction of an agricultural water system in Ka’u.

The County’s overall economic outlook remains mixed due to the County’s dependence on the condition of the State's economy. Since 1990, the State’s economy has been in a period of decline. While there are opportunities for expansion into new and existing industries, external factors such as the world economy may have an impact on the County’s future economy.

[Agriculture] Throughout the County's history, agriculture has played an important role in the County's economy [throughout its history]. In the late l700's, [Hawaii] Hawaii's agricultural industry began by provisioning ships. During the 1800's, sugar production and cattle ranching emerged as leaders of the modern agricultural industry. These industries dominated the island's economy and social fabric well into the 1900s. The 1980's and 1990's saw the demise of sugar cultivation and the steady decline in cattle production. These once dominant industries have been replaced by fully diversified agriculture including flowers and nursery products, coffee, macadamia nuts, tropical fruits, vegetable crops, orchards, aquaculture, and forestry. Import replacement and expansion of export products and markets are increasing. The three leading agricultural industries within the County are flowers and nursery products, vegetables, and macadamia nuts. Combined, these three agricultural industries accounted for over 50 per cent of the total value of agricultural production in the County in 1997. When compared statewide, the County of Hawaii produces 35 per cent of fresh vegetables, 72 per cent of bananas, 30 per cent of coffee, 95 per cent of macadamia nuts, and 51 per cent of flowers and nursery products. Agriculture’s future remains favorable with the strong diversification and development of new export protocol and technology.

[Sugar, ranching and diversified agriculture continues to be an integral part of the County's economy. Commercial growing of nearly every tropical and semi-tropical product have been attempted here. From early experiments, the coffee, macadamia nut, papaya, and cut flower industries have emerged. Experimentation with new agricultural products will continue to contribute to the island's agricultural economic base. In addition, many of the County's manufacturing concerns are closely associated with agricultural activities.]

Within the past [twenty-five] forty years, tourism has emerged as the primary economic activity on the island. Much of the economic growth experienced during this period can be linked with the expansion of the visitor industry. Both the statewide and local economies have been faced with an economic downturn since 1990. Visitor arrivals to the island peaked in 1991 at 1,189,000 and subsequently declined to a low of 1,079,000 in 1994 before rebounding to 1,286,000 in 1998. The mainland economic recession of the early 1990’s and the Asian economic crisis in 1997 significantly impacted Hawaii's visitor industry. These events emphasized the dependency of the local economy upon the visitor industry and its vulnerability to external influences. While the tourist industry is expected to continue growing, it has matured to a point where healthy growth will demand a reinvestment in the infrastructure supporting the visitor industry. The County must continue to preserve, protect and enhance the unique qualities of the Big Island and promote the island as a vacation and business destination to respond to growing competition from tourist destinations around the world.

In 1970, just prior to the initial adoption of the General Plan, the population in the County of Hawaii numbered 63,468. The 1970 census count was the first to show an increase, albeit small, since 1930 [. Population in modern history] when the population peaked at 73,325 [during that year], largely as a result of the importation of labor for the sugar industry. The population decline between 1930 and the 1960s was primarily due to the increasing mechanization of the sugar plantation, limited job opportunities in other economic sectors, and the out-migration of residents. This decline was reversed during the 1960s with a modest growth of 2,140 residents between the 1960 and 1970 census.

Since 1970, the County's population has continued to grow. The 1980 census registered an island-wide resident population of 92,053 people representing a growth of 28,585 residents or a 45 per cent increase over the 1970 census. The 1990 census revealed a resident population of 120,317 residents, or an increase of 31 per cent over the 1980 resident population. [Estimates prepared by the Department of Planning and Economic Development suggest a population of 106,400 in l985] The census registered 148,677 residents in 2000, a 24 per cent increase over the 1990 resident population. [These estimates represent the County's population approaching the island's native population in l779 estimated to have been between 100,000 to 150,000.] The County anticipates that its resident population will grow at an annual rate of 1.95 per cent to 2005, 2.04 per cent between 2005 to 2010, and 2.1 per cent between 2010 and 2020. Projected estimates for 2020 indicate an island resident population of 217,718, or an increase of 46 per cent over the estimated 2000 population of 148,677.

Table 2 summarizes the growth in Hawaii County's job count, by industry, from 1970 to [1984.] 1997. [The data indicates a shift of employment from agriculture towards tourism and other service categories. While there have been substantial increases in non-agricultural categories, farm and agricultural employment have also increased, particularly in those districts which are not primarily dependant on the sugar industry. Another noticeable change is the absolute decline in construction and manufacturing jobs between 1970 and 1984.] Since 1980, employment trends within the County have appeared to shift from the non-service industry to the service industry in jobs such as wholesale and retail trade, finance, hotels, etc. In 1980, the service industries accounted for approximately 61 per cent of the private industry workforce and 49 per cent of the total wages earned. By 1997, the service industries have dominated the private industry, accounting for 79 per cent of the workforce and 74 per cent of the total wages earned. This growth in the service industry is mainly attributable to the growth in the County’s tourism sector.

[The value of sugar, diversified agriculture and construction output increased during the 1970s. These increases together with net gains in the travel industry provided support for a period of unprecedented growth in employment and population in Hawaii County.

Hawaii County's employment expanded at an average rate of 3.4 percent annually since 1970 as compared to 2.3 percent between 1960 and 1970. The County added a total of 16,050 new employees since 1970. Since 1970, statewide employment increased at an average rate of 2.8 percent or more than 10,000 new jobs annually, compared to an average rate of 3 percent and about 6,500 jobs added annually during the previous decade.] Employment within the County in 1980 totaled 40,850 on a population base of 92,053 residents. In 1990, employment increased to 55,200 on a population base of 120,317, representing a 3.05 per cent and 2.71 per cent annual compounded increase, respectively. The 2000 census showed a population of 148,677 and an employment base of 69,937. For the year 2020, the Planning Department anticipates a population of 217,718 with an employment base of 106,492. Average annual employment growth rates are anticipated at 2.05 per cent between 1999 and 2005, 2.11 per cent between 2005 and 2010, and 2.16 per cent between 2010 and 2020. These employment projections are below the robust 3.05 per cent average annual employment growth rates during the 1980s, but above the 1.61 per cent average annual growth rate during the 1990s.

Unemployment rates for the County of Hawaii dropped drastically from 1980 (6.2 per cent) to 1990 (3.8 per cent) due to the strong economy during this period. As the County entered the economic downturn that extended throughout the 1990s, its unemployment rate increased to 10.2 per cent by 1997. Per capita income during these same periods also saw a corresponding strong increase during the 1980s and a decline in growth during the 1990s.

Table 1. Population, Hawaii County

[1930 - 1985] 1930-2000

Change from Previous Census

Table 2. Job Count By Industry

1970-[1984] 1997

• Agriculture

Since the mid-1980s, the County of Hawaii has seen a dramatic shift in its agricultural employment profile. The sugar industry was the island's most significant economic contributor from the mid-1800s to its peak production year of 1983. Since 1983, the sugar industry steadily declined until its ultimate demise in 1997 with the closure of the last sugar operation in Ka’u. The island of Hawaii has since established itself as the center of diversified agriculture production, research, and education in the State. Hawaii’s new agriculture industry is characterized by a few large operations such as agroforestry and ranching along with many smaller family-owned farms that produce a multitude of high quality fresh and processed products for local and export markets. Agricultural employment will increase significantly as former sugarcane lands are brought into production with import replacement, export and value added crops and products. Additional employment will be derived from expanding agrotourism enterprises. The expansion of the industry will be facilitated by the establishment of a new air cargo distribution center and post-harvest processing facilities that will allow for significant increases in the volume and types of products exported to the continental United States and foreign countries. Agricultural research and education will be greatly enhanced.

• Tourism

The County will continue to pursue the development of a strong multi-market base for the visitor industry that includes direct oversea flights to Kona, growth of the cruise ship industry, strong resort-based employment centers and integrated product development for local products that can generate a healthy small business economic base. The County's visitor industry will continue to successfully grow and expand. Likewise, employment in the visitor industry and its related industries will continue to grow.

• Other Basic Industries

There is tremendous potential for expansion in other industries such as aquaculture, astronomy, renewable energy, research and development, and special events such as cultural festivals and athletic events.

 

 

 

EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The County's General Plan is a policy document [which] that sets forth [guidelines] the direction for future activities [in] on the island of Hawaii for the next few decades. In order to plan for the future, it is necessary to understand both historical [trends] and future trends related to the number of residents and visitors to be served and the kinds of facilities and resources needed to fulfill their needs.

In traditional public planning efforts, entire plans have been based on the achievement of the projected levels of population. In many of these cases, where population numbers are goals, plans become obsolete when the projected number of residents is not achieved or is surpassed. Thus, the population projections presented within the General Plan are not intended to be used as goals. Rather, this General Plan effort uses the projected levels of population as a guideline in land use planning. The projections represent what could reasonably be expected to occur in the future. The goals, policies, standards, and recommendations of this plan are intended to be flexible enough to [cope with] accommodate population levels below or above the projections stated in this section.

Employment and population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through the analysis of relationships between economic activity, employment, and population. The analytical approach used entails the forecasting of employment in basic industries and the relationship that changes in employment have [relative to] upon population. [An econometric model was developed and utilized to project total employment and population.]

[Basic industries which receive] Primary Income Generators are those industries that generate income from outside the County. They are assumed to be the foundation of the local economy and the key to the development of the island. [Industries which are considered basic are] Primary Income Generators include agriculture, tourism, the manufacturing of export products, and research and development. These Primary Income Generators, in turn, "drive" the secondary industries, or those enterprises that service the Primary Income Generators or the local population and includes wholesaling, retailing and services. The Primary Income Generators determine the long-run pattern of population and income growth for the County.

[Secondary industries are those enterprises which service basic industries and/or population. Retail and wholesale trade, bakeries, utilities, financial institutions, and local government are examples of industries in this category.]

Three sets of projections were developed for the comprehensive review program, Series A, B, and C. The major variables in each of these projections [was] were the rate of growth of the visitor industry[.], the construction of the proposed State prison, the expansion of the University of Hawaii at Hilo, and the utilization of a post-harvest treatment facility for export agricultural products. [Plans for resort complexes and other factors were considered in the forecast of hotel rooms.] It should [again] be emphasized that the projections are not statements of goals. The population projections, and the strength of the correlation between primary economic generators and population growth, must be viewed with caution. The 1989 General Plan contained a similar set of economic and population projections. Visitor arrivals from 1990-2000, a primary economic generator, grew far less than projected. The 1989 "Series A" projected a 35 per cent growth in westbound visitor arrivals in the 1990-2000 period; the actual number barely increased. Agriculture, the other major primary economic sector, lost jobs because of the loss of the sugar industry. During the same time period, the county’s population grew about 24 per cent, just slightly less than the 1989 Series A projection of 27 per cent. It appears that there has been substantial population growth not driven by economic opportunities in the primary industries. This may be due to in-migration of people seeking other amenities such as a clean environment and rural lifestyle.

Series A

Series A is the most conservative projection. It assumes [the demise of the sugar industry and modest expansion] a 1 per cent annual growth rate in the visitor industry. [The overall 1985-2005 rate of growth for Series A of 2.0 % per annum is less than the 2.9% rate of growth of employment in the County during the last five years.] It also assumes that the proposed State prison will not be constructed, job growth at the University of Hawaii at Hilo will be limited to 16 positions per year, and the papaya industry will grow at an annual rate of 1 per cent. Without the construction of the proposed State prison on the island, 2,000 construction jobs over three years and approximately 1,000 permanent jobs to run the facility will not be realized.

SERIES A

PROJECTIONS, HAWAII COUNTY 1985- [2005] 2020

Economic Assessment, PKF Hawaii, January 2000

U.S. Census, 2000

HAWAII COUNTY, 1985-[2005] 2020

Series B

Series B projections were developed as a medium series. These projections represent a moderate growth rate [lie] between Series A and C. [Sugar employment is maintained and the] The overall per annum employment growth rate anticipated in Series B [is approximately 3.7%.] ranges between 2 per cent and 2.2 per cent. It also assumes a modest 2 per cent annual growth rate for visitor arrivals, compared to a historical growth rate of 1.45 per cent between the years 1977 and 1998. This projection also assumes that an additional 70 new positions will be created at the University of Hawaii at Hilo to accommodate the additional 1,000 students expected to be enrolled within the next ten years. Finally, the establishment of the Hilo Call Center will ultimately create an additional 300 new jobs.

SERIES B

PROJECTIONS, HAWAII COUNTY 1985 - [2005] 2020

Economic Assessment, PKF Hawaii, January 2000

U.S. Census, 2000

 

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

HAWAII COUNTY, 1985- [2005] 2020